LOST IN THE WOODS FOOTBALL POOL 2017   RULES

 

Cost:  $10 for each half of the season.  (1st half covers weeks 1-9, 2nd half covers weeks 10-17) ($20 for both halves). 

 

$10 first half (mandatory) – 1st half covers weeks 1-9

$10 poker first half (optional)

$10 survivor (optional)

$45 extra pain (optional) - individual weekly contest, $5 per week

$10 total first and second halves (optional) – covers entire season (I’m working on a half-half plan for the total)

$85 for everything first half

 

$10 second half (mandatory) - 2nd half covers weeks 10-17

$10 poker 2nd half (optional)

$10 survivor 2nd half (optional)

$40 extra pain (optional)

$70 for everything 2nd half (optional)

 

$155 total for all events. 

 

How to play:  Each game is worth one point if you correctly pick the winner using the spread.  Favored teams (favorites) are shown in the left column, with the estimated number of points they will win by shown in the middle column.  Home teams are shown in all CAPS.  Here is an example:      

                                Favorite team                           Spread                     Underdog

(home team) DENVER                            8.5                          Baltimore

 

This means that the oddsmakers in Vegas think that Denver (home team) will beat Baltimore by 8.5 points. 

 

If you think that Denver will win by 9 or more points (i.e. that they will “Beat the Spread”), then choose DENVER.  If they DO win by 9 or more points, you will get credit for a correct pick.  If they lose, or win by 8 or less points, you do not get credit for a correct pick, because they did not “beat the spread”.  If you pick Baltimore, and they win, or lose by 8 or less points, you get credit for a correct pick.

 

The total  number of correct picks will be tracked for the entire half of the season.  The person with the most correct picks at the end of the half-season WINS and receives the jackpot except that the 2nd place person will win $40!  Then we all start over for the 2nd half.  If there is a tie, the entire jackpot $ will be split between the winners (who are considered the 1st and 2nd place winners).    

 

Optional “Total Picks” Contest: Pay another $10 once at the beginning of the season to enter a contest which combines the number of wins from both the 1st and 2nd halves.  The person who has the most total picks over the 2 halves combined will win the money collected for this event, except that the 2nd place person will receive $25.  If there is a tie, the entire pot will be split between the winners (who are considered the 1st and 2nd place winners). 

 

Optional  Picks Draw Poker” Contest:  Another optional contest, which costs $10 per half-season.  You get one card each week, which depends on the number of wins you have.  For example, if you get nine correct picks you get a “9”; eleven picks you get a Jack.  Getting 1 win or 0-1 losses gets a wild card!  3-10 are self-explanatory, 11 = Jack, 12 = Queen, 13 = King, 14 =ACE.  There will be one hand of poker per half-season, based on 5-card draw.  The initial deal of 5 cards is the first 5 weeks.  After the 5th week, you can “discard” up to 3 cards, or 4 if you have an ace.  Then, the next few weeks (depending on how many you discarded) will determine your new cards.  The best poker hand will win the pot collected from the players of this optional game.  Standard poker rankings apply as described here: http://www.pagat.com/vying/pokerrank.html. Note: 5-of-a-kind are allowed and are the highest hand.  ¼ of the poker pot goes to the winner based on the calculated odds shown below. 

 

Optional “Survivor” Contest: Give me your two most confident picks without the spread.  Continue every week, until you have lost (or tied) THREE games, then you are out of the contest.  Cant pick the same team twice during each half. We will continue until there is only one person left, who gets the jackpot.  The first half we can continue making picks into the second half if necessary.  The second half, if two or more people remain going into the last week of each half, then each will provide the normal 2 selections and 5 additional picks, in order of preference.  Those should determine the winner, if not we’ll split the pot.  If the last two (or more) people end the contest the same week (all remaining players get their 3rd (or more) strike, they will split the pot.   

 

How to get and submit picks:

Weekly picks and results will be posted at www.midmozark.com/football .  Games and picks are normally posted by midnight Tuesday each week.   Email all picks to me at gapper1@yahoo.com.  You can just list your choices, or somehow highlight your selection from the list.   

 

If you are TDY or unable to view the web page, I usually get the games and lines from the Tuesday USA Today.  For all whole number spreads shown, I usually give the home team an extra ½ point (so that we don’t have a tie), except that all 7’s will round down to 6.5, and 3’s will round down to 2.5.  Sometimes no line is shown, and I will use another source to get the line.  If USA Today doesn’t have a line, I found a good source at http://www.footballlocks.com

 

If you can’t email the picks to me @ my yahoo address, you can call them in.  My cell is 573-528-1880. 

 

If you fail to submit picks for any given week, the first time you will get AWAY teams (but not to exceed the best picker; and not eligible to win extra pain).  The 2nd and later times, you will get wins equal to the worst picker of the week.  If you forget any individual game, e.g. your Thurs/Sat picks (or leave out a Sunday game), but send the Sun/Mon games you will be given away teams for the missing Thurs/Sat games and your own picks for the Sun/Mon games.  If you send the Thurs//Sat games but don't send the Sun/Mon games you'll be given wins equal to the worst picker.

 

Picks for Sunday/Monday games are due by midnight Saturday.  This is a change, to make it easier on me.  I don’t like waiting around by my computer until noon on Sunday.  If you’re lucky enough to submit Sunday morning before I do my summary I will accept but you’re taking your chances!  Picks for Wed/Thurs/Sat games are due by gametime.  On those weeks with Wed/Thurs/Sat picks, it is OK to send that one and the rest later.  Except for valid technical difficulties, no changes of any kind allowed after games are posted Sunday.

 

Thanks, and good luck!   

Note: All money collected is paid out, none is kept by me, the “commissioner” for any reason.

 

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Alternative poker odds.  Highest hands top down, left to right.

 

Prob

 

5 of  a kind

4 of a kind

Full Houses

3 of a kind

straight

2.01E-17

 

Aces

 

 

 

 

9.85E-15

 

 

 

 3/K, 3/2

 

 

6.89E-14

 

 

 

 K/A, 2/A

 

 

1.85E-13

 

 

 

 A/Q, A/3

 

 

2.19E-13

 

 

Aces

 

 

 

3.38E-13

 

Kings, 2's

 

 

 

 

1.66E-12

 

 

 

 A/J, A/4

 

 

3.38E-12

 

 

 

K/2, 2/K

 

 

5.61E-12

 

 

 

 Q/A, 3/A

 

 

8.06E-12

 

 

 

 A/10, A/5

 

 

2.24E-11

 

 

 

 A/9, A/6

 

 

3.7E-11

 

 

 

 A/8, A/7

 

 

6.34E-11

 

 

 

 K/Q, K/3, 2/Q, 2/3

 

 

1.51E-10

 

 

 

 J/A, 4/A

 

 

2.75E-10

 

 

 

 Q/K, Q/2, 3/K, 3/2

 

 

5.16E-10

 

Q's, 3's

 

 

 

 

5.25E-10

 

 

 K's, 2's

 

 

 

5.71E-10

 

 

 

 K/J, K/4, 2/J, 2/4

 

 

8.19E-10

 

 

 

 

3 Aces

 

1.61E-09

 

 

 

 10/A, 5/A

 

 

2.76E-09

 

 

 

 K/10, K/5, 2/10, 2/5

 

 

5.16E-09

 

 

 

Q/3, 3/Q

 

 

7.42E-09

 

 

 

 J/K, J/2, 4/K, 4/2

 

 

7.47E-09

 

 

 

 9/A, 6/A

 

 

7.68E-09

 

 

 

 K/9, K/6, 2/9, 2/6

 

 

9.33E-09

 

 

 

 

 

Str 10-A, A-5

1.27E-08

 

 

 

 K/8, K/7, 2/8, 2/7

 

 

1.59E-08

 

 

 

 8/A, 7/A

 

 

4.65E-08

 

 

 

 Q/J, Q/4, 3/J, 3/4

 

 

7.9E-08

 

 

 

 10/K, 10/2, 5/K, 5/2

 

 

1.25E-07

 

J's, 4's

 

 

 

 

1.39E-07

 

 

 

 J/Q, J/3, 4/Q, 4/3

 

 

1.83E-07

 

 

Q's, 3's

 

 

 

2.25E-07

 

 

 

 Q/10, Q/5, 3/10, 3/5

 

 

2.79E-07

 

 

 

 

K's, 2's

 

3.66E-07

 

 

 

 9/K, 9/2, 6/K, 6/2

 

 

6.25E-07

 

 

 

 Q/9, Q/6 3/9, 3/6

 

 

7.78E-07

 

 

 

 8/K, 8/2, 7/K, 7/2

 

 

1.03E-06

 

 

 

 Q/8, Q/7, 3/8, 3/7

 

 

1.25E-06

 

 

 

J/4, 4/J

 

 

1.48E-06

 

 

 

 10/Q, 10/3, 5/Q, 5/3

 

 

3.11E-06

 

 

 

 

 

Str 9-K, 2-6

6.07E-06

 

 

 

 J/10, J/5, 4/10, 4/5

 

 

6.46E-06

 

10's, 5's

 

 

 

 

6.87E-06

 

 

 

 9/Q, 9/3, 6/Q, 6/3

 

 

1.34E-05

 

 

 

 10/J, 10/4, 5/J, 5/4

 

 

1.44E-05

 

 

J's, 4's

 

 

 

1.46E-05

 

 

 

 8/Q, 8/3, 7/Q, 7/3

 

 

1.69E-05

 

 

 

 J/9, J/6, 4/9, 4/6

 

 

2.21E-05

 

 

 

 

Q's, 3's

 

2.79E-05

 

 

 

 J/8, J/7, 4/8, 4/7

 

 

6.18E-05

 

 

 

 9/J, 9/4, 6/J, 6/4

 

 

6.46E-05

 

 

 

 10/5, 5/10

 

 

8.31E-05

 

9's, 6's

 

 

 

 

0.000131

 

 

 

 8/J, 8/4, 7/J, 7/4

 

 

0.00018

 

 

 

 10/9, 10/6, 5/9, 5/6

 

 

0.000191

 

 

 

 

 

str 8-Q, 3-7

0.000292

 

8's, 7's

 

 

 

 

0.000297

 

 

 

 10/8, 10/7, 5/8, 5/7

 

 

0.000299

 

 

 

 9/10, 9/5, 6/10, 6/5

 

 

0.00032

 

 

10's, 5's

 

 

 

0.00056

 

 

 

 

J's, 4's

 

0.000636

 

 

 

 8/10, 8/5, 7/10, 7/5

 

 

0.000831

 

 

 

 9/6, 6/9

 

 

0.001374

 

 

 

 9/8, 9/7, 6/8, 6/7

 

 

0.001767

 

 

 

 8/9, 8/6, 7/9, 7/6

 

 

0.002304

 

 

9's, 6's

 

 

 

0.002698

 

 

 

 

 

str 7-J, 4-8

0.002921

 

 

 

 8/7, 7/8

 

 

0.005296

 

 

 

 

10's, 5's

 

0.005972

 

 

8's, 7's

 

 

 

0.009894

 

 

 

 

 

str 6-10, 5-9

0.021232

 

 

 

 

9's, 6's

 

0.040827

 

 

 

 

8's, 7's